Professor Darin Gerdes.
In a sobering analysis released on May 15, 2025, Professor Darin Gerdes draws striking parallels between today’s geopolitical tensions and the volatile prelude to World War II. His YouTube video, “Are We on the Brink of WWIII? 1938–39’s Grim Clues!”, walks viewers through an eerie comparison between the global landscape of 1938–39 and our current moment.
A World on Edge
Gerdes opens with a survey of ongoing global flashpoints: the unresolved tensions between India and Pakistan, the persistent conflicts between Israel and its neighbors, the dangerous proxy war in Yemen, and most alarmingly, the war in Ukraine. That last conflict, he warns, remains the most plausible spark for a wider war, especially if it escalates into NATO territory.
Add to that China’s posturing over Taiwan, North Korea’s provocations, and Iran’s destabilizing role in the Middle East, and you have a dangerous convergence of authoritarian powers testing the limits of the current international order.
History’s Familiar Patterns
To understand how these scattered conflicts might stitch themselves into something far larger, Gerdes turns to history. The late 1930s were full of similar unrest: the Spanish Civil War, Japan’s invasion of China, the Nazi annexation of Austria, and the infamous Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact that divided Eastern Europe. At the time, international institutions failed to act decisively, and authoritarian regimes pushed aggressively into neighboring states.
Then, as now, the world seemed fragmented and distracted—until suddenly, it wasn’t.
Similarities—and Crucial Differences
Gerdes outlines the many parallels:
Multiple simultaneous conflicts
Authoritarian expansionism
Weak international institutions
Economic strain and disrupted trade
Rapid changes in military technology
But he also notes key differences. Most significantly, today's world is shaped by nuclear deterrence—a force absent in the 1930s that both restrains and complicates modern warfare. In addition, while global alliances today are less defined than the Axis and Allied powers of the past, they still exist—particularly through NATO.
Another difference lies in information speed. Unlike the 1930s, today’s public sees conflicts unfold in real time, with live updates, satellite images, and constant commentary. This visibility might deter rash action—or inflame it further.
What Comes Next?
Gerdes stops short of declaring a third world war imminent. Instead, he suggests we are at a crossroads. The lessons of 1938 and 1939 don’t guarantee the same outcome—but they should serve as a warning. History doesn’t repeat itself, he reminds us, but it does echo.
To hear Professor Gerdes explain the full historical context and his complete analysis, watch the full video here:
▶️ Are We on the Brink of WWIII? 1938–39’s Grim Clues!