Anne Applebaum.
Anne Applebaum has argued that one of the biggest mistakes in understanding the war in Ukraine is to see it as a struggle over territory. Russia already stretches across eleven time zones, with vast regions it can barely populate. It does not “need” Donetsk, Crimea, or any other piece of land. For Putin, the war is not about geography but about power—the power to dominate Ukraine and pull it back into Russia’s orbit.
This is why talk of “land for peace” has always missed the point. Even when Western leaders hinted at deals that would have given Moscow large concessions, Putin was uninterested. He still believes he can win outright. That belief rests on a simple calculation: Americans are unreliable, Europeans are weak, and Ukrainians will eventually be bombed, starved, or demoralized into submission. If victory is still within reach, why settle?
Applebaum likens the war to France’s colonial fight in Algeria. Imperial powers often cling to the illusion that colonies can be held against their will. But just as Algeria was not French, Ukraine is not Russian. Both wars reveal the same truth: occupation cannot manufacture belonging. The question is not whether Moscow will one day accept this, but when.
Until that reckoning comes, Applebaum warns, hopes for quick ceasefires or neat compromises are illusions. Russia will only stop when defeat becomes undeniable, and the West’s task is to hasten that realization.
Further Reading
Anne Applebaum, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism (2020)
Anne Applebaum, Red Famine: Stalin’s War on Ukraine (2017)
Timothy Snyder, The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America (2018)
Serhii Plokhy, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine (2015)
Mark Galeotti, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine (2022)
Michael Kimmage, Collision: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability (2023)