In a sobering yet surprisingly hopeful conversation held as part of the Democracy First speaker series, political scientist Barbara F. Walter laid bare the growing threat of political violence in the United States. Walter, author of the bestseller How Civil Wars Start, draws on decades of conflict research and her work with the CIA’s Political Instability Task Force to sound the alarm: America is slipping into dangerous territory.
The Warning Signs: Enocracy and Identity-Based Parties
Walter explains that the Task Force, using global data, found only two reliable predictors for civil conflict:
Enocracy — countries that are neither full democracies nor full autocracies.
Political parties organized around identity — particularly race, religion, or ethnicity.
Nations that fall into this grey zone are uniquely vulnerable. “Almost all political violence,” she said, “happens in the middle,” between democracy and autocracy.
When she applied this model to the U.S. (unofficially, as the CIA is barred from domestic surveillance), she saw a troubling trend: the U.S. had been downgraded from a full democracy in 2016 to a partial democracy by 2020, entering what she calls the “anocracy zone.” At the same time, the Republican Party had become increasingly defined by white identity and evangelical Christianity, while the Democratic Party had become a multi-ethnic coalition.
“By the Task Force’s definition,” Walter concluded, “the U.S. would likely have gone on the watch list in December 2020”—a list of nations at high risk of political instability or violence within two years. “And then,” she added, “January 6th happened.”
What Civil War Would Look Like Today
Walter is quick to dismantle outdated notions of civil war. Modern internal conflicts rarely resemble 1860s-style battles between uniformed armies. Instead, they look like what’s happening in places like Northern Ireland or Sri Lanka: insurgencies, guerrilla warfare, and terrorism. Civilians become the primary targets—especially minorities and perceived supporters of the state.
In the U.S., that could mean attacks on judges, election officials, law enforcement, or marginalized groups such as African Americans, Jews, Latinos, and LGBTQ communities.
Who drives this violence? Not the most oppressed, Walter explains, but “groups that were politically and economically dominant and are now in decline.” They experience loss of status, still have resources, and resist change. In the U.S., she suggests, the rise of white nationalist groups fits that pattern.
The Role of Social Media and Disinformation
Another accelerant? Social media. Walter calls it a “backdoor” for authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia to undermine democratic societies. Algorithms designed to trigger anger and fear have polarized citizens, amplified misinformation, and made viral hate easy and instant. She calls for one modest reform that could drastically reduce the spread of destabilizing content: temporarily disable the reshare button on platforms like Facebook during key democratic moments, such as elections.
“If I had one wish,” she says, “it would be to regulate the algorithms—not the content, just the algorithms.”
Can Democracy Be Saved?
Walter is not fatalistic. “I’m an optimist,” she insists. Despite structural flaws in American democracy—gerrymandering, the electoral college, and executive overreach—she sees potential for reform. She places hope in independent voters, especially immigrants and younger generations, who are less tied to partisan histories and more open to centrist politics.
She also calls for renewed attention to voting rights. Bills like the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act are not radical, she says—they simply restore protections that were standard a decade ago.
Further Reading
Barbara F. Walter – How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them, Crown Publishing, 2022.
Barbara F. Walter — the author of "How Civil Wars Start" — explains the threat of Trump 2.0
Hosted by Democracy First, available on YouTube: Watch the full video herePeter Pomerantsev – This Is Not Propaganda: Adventures in the War Against Reality
Freedom to Vote Act – Overview via the Brennan Center for Justice
John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act – Summary from Congress.gov